Suspend the Olympic Games

In this statement, I write reasons why we should suspend the Tokyo Olympic Games. First, there is a risk of spreading new variants. During the Games, tens of thousands of people have come to Tokyo, including athletes, officials, and the press, from all over the world. Because of inadequate quarantine at airports, infected people have been identified one after another in Japan. It is said that the contact between the Olympic people and the public is blocked off by the “bubble method”, but on such a large scale, it is not possible to completely cut off the contact.

There are only several countries in the world that are analyzing the whole genome of viruses like the UK. Even in countries that are analyzing the genome, highly infectious variants were discovered after a delay of several months. There is a possibility of influx of the infection from countries where the infection is spreading, where virus test and genome analysis are not yet sufficiently done, where vaccines are not available, and where a variant strain may be occurring. The delta variant has slipped through quarantine and is currently spreading in Japan.

The “bubble” system was successful in the NBA (National Basketball Association) tournament last year in Florida, but the scale of the Olympic Games is completely different. There are many venues outside of Tokyo, and many routes to travel. It is impossible that everything is truly blocked. There is no way that all the domestic staff accompanying the athletes can be checked. There is also the problem of inevitable contact between athletes. It is difficult to enforce thorough inspections and procedures for entering people into Japan. Therefore, considering the risk of bringing in tens of thousands of people from a pandemic world, the event should be cancelled.

The second reason for suspending the Games is the risk of heat stroke in the summer in Tokyo. Global warming has been affecting people’s health, and every summer, the Japanese islands is hit by heat waves, with many deaths due to heat stroke caused by abnormally high temperatures and humidity. “The heat index, or Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), is considered to be a high alert when the temperature exceeds 28 degrees Celsius, and the number of heat stroke patients increases significantly. The Japan Sports Association issued a guideline to stop strenuous exercise when the index is 28 degrees Celsius or higher, and to stop exercise when the index is 31 degrees Celsius or higher.

In 2007, the Chicago Marathon was cancelled due to hundreds of cases of heat stroke, In 2016, during the U.S. National Qualifying Marathon in Los Angeles, the temperature reached 26 degrees Celsius, only 70% of runners were able to finish the race. This year’s Tokyo Games will be held in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer, the health of the marathoners and other competitors should be a concern. 

The latest climate prediction model research shows that the risk of future summer Olympic Games in the Northern Hemisphere is very high, with only about 1% of major cities escaping the prediction of a heat index of 26 degrees Celsius or higher until 2085, and only about 6% of cities escaping the prediction of 28 degrees Celsius or higher. In other words, most cities will be at high risk of hosting the Games on high alert days. It is important to protect athletes from the health hazards of serious global warming. It is humanely justified to suspend the Tokyo Games if the weather is abnormal.

Yasuharu Tokuda, MD, MPHDirector, Muribushi Okinawa Center for Teaching Hospitals, Okinawa, Japan